What is a ‘Godzilla’ El Nino, and how could it affect Singapore?

SINGAPORE - Sweltering and potentially hazy days are on the horizon for Singapore and the region.

On May 7, Minister for Sustainability and the Environment Grace Fu warned that a “Godzilla” or super El Nino could trigger more intense forest fires and haze in South-east Asia later in 2026.

El Nino – which occurs when trade winds weaken and warm water moves east across the Pacific – leads to the periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. This brings drier and hotter conditions to South-east Asia.

Some scientists predict that this could match the strongest El Nino on record, which occurred nearly 150 years ago.

The Straits Times spoke to experts to find out more about how a powerful El Nino could affect Singapore and the region.

1. What is a ‘Godzilla’ El Nino, and how does it differ from previous episodes?

A climatologist with NASA coined the term “Godzilla” in 2015, when he realised the phenomenon that year was set to be stronger than the 1997/98 El Nino.

A “Godzilla” or super El Nino emerges when the central equatorial Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature exceeds 2 deg C above the long-term average.

An ordinary El Nino occurs when the sea surface temperature rises by 0.5 deg C.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is a 60 per cent chance of El Nino emerging between May and July, and persisting through at least the end of 2026.

On its intensity, climate scientist Koh Tieh Yong said it will develop into a strong El Nino, with a 1.5 deg C rise in sea surface temperature, by the last quarter of 2026.

But the models differ on what exactly could happen.

Some models predict a super El Nino, but other predictions do not reach the necessary threshold. One estimate from the US is 25 per cent chance of a super El Nino, added Dr Koh, an adjunct associate professor in meteorology and climate science at the National University of Singapore.

“Presently, it is still in the neutral phase, which means the event will emerge in the next one to two months and intensify rapidly, as strong El Ninos tend to do.”

Previous super El Ninos happened in 1982 and 1983, 1997 and 1998, and in 2015 and 2016. The region experienced its worst haze episode in 2015, which prompted school closures for a day in Singapore. The Republic also experienced its last heatwave in April 2016.

Singapore declares a heatwave when maximum temperatures reach 35 deg C on three consecutive days, with the mean temperature each day being at least 29 deg C.

El Nino typically occurs every two to seven years, and lasts around nine to 12 months.

The last episode occurred in 2023 and 2024, and was strong, with 2024 becoming the hottest year on record as the phenomenon was coupled with climate change. It was also the first year in which the global average temperature exceeded 1.5 deg C above pre-industrial levels.

The World Meteorological Organization said there is no evidence that climate change increases the frequency or intensity of El Nino events.

But it can amplify associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere increase the availability of energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heatwaves and heavy rainfall.

2. How would a super El Nino affect Singapore’s weather?

The Meteorological Service Singapore (MSS) said that hotter weather is expected from July.

In addition, El Nino events could significantly reduce rainfall between June and October 2026 and between February and May 2027, which also happen to be the drier months of the year, said Dr Koh.

Rainfall between February and May during the previous super El Nino years of 1983, 1998 and 2016 plunged to historic lows, he added. In 2016, the water level at the Linggiu Reservoir in Johor, from which Singapore imports water, fell to a historic low of 20 per cent.

“The likely lower rainfall could impact water reservoir levels both in Singapore and Johor. So, we may need to rely more on desalination and NEWater to supply local needs,” said Dr Koh.

During dry periods, NEWater is added to Singapore’s reservoirs.

At the same time, clearer skies and lower rainfall would also make the land surface hotter, causing the mercury to soar.

“We should also keep an eye out for more hot days and warm nights, especially between February and May 2027,” said Dr Koh, adding that it is far too early to tell if a heatwave could occur.

The hotter prognosis comes as countries in the region, like Malaysia and Thailand, are currently in the grip of a heatwave.

In early May, Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim announced cloud-seeding operations to trigger rain in the parched, drought-hit northern “rice bowl” of the peninsula.

3. What is the haze outlook in the coming months?

Singapore experienced hazy conditions in 2026 especially between January and March because of hot spots and peat fires in Johor.

At a dialogue on May 7, Ms Fu urged ASEAN nations to be more vigilant in 2026, and pursue closer regional cooperation through the legally binding ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, and a high-level ministerial committee that coordinates efforts to monitor and manage land and forest fires.

Dr Koh said the drier conditions may result in transboundary haze in Malaysia, Singapore, Sumatra and Borneo during August to November 2026 and February to May 2027.

The south-west monsoon season between June and September is the traditional dry season for the southern ASEAN region, with a greater likelihood of transboundary haze carried by winds blowing mainly from the south and south-east.

“But the coming El Nino is more likely to become strong and thus prolong man-made forest fires later rather than earlier in this season,” said Dr Koh.

While a strong El Nino and drier weather conditions amplify haze, the root causes of forest and peatland fires are often human activities, such as cheap slash-and-burn methods deployed by farmers and corporations in Indonesia to clear land for plantations.

Experts said that the upcoming El Nino will stress-test the Indonesian authorities and corporations’ firefighting and prevention efforts.

While 2025 was not an El Nino year, forest and land fires in Riau and West Kalimantan caused haze in July 2025, which spread to Malaysia, Professor Bambang Hero Saharjo of IPB University in Indonesia pointed out.

“In Rokan Hilir regency in Riau, a community attempted to burn 4ha of peatland, but ultimately burned 342ha. Another fire occurred in the Meranti Islands (in Riau), where a community attempted to burn 4ha of peatland, but ultimately burned 632ha,” he said.

If fires are proven, legal action must be taken, said Prof Bambang. Corporations should undergo a compliance audit before the dry season, with action taken against those who use fire for land clearing, he added.

4. Will there be yet another mass coral bleaching crisis?

The last El Nino of 2023 and 2024 led to the fourth global mass coral bleaching event, which affected more than 80 per cent of the world’s reefs.

There are concerns that a super El Nino could fuel yet another marine heatwave, hitting reefs still reeling from that recent crisis.

Corals get their vibrant colours from microscopic algae that live in their tissues. But under stress from rising water temperatures, the corals expel the algae and turn ashen white in a phenomenon known as coral bleaching.

At the peak of the bleaching event in July 2024, about 44 per cent of coral colonies surveyed were reported to have bleached in Singapore. Eventually, around 5 per cent of corals died, while most recovered.

In the super El Nino of 2016, coral mortality was 10 per cent.

Marine biologist Huang Danwei, deputy head of NUS’ Lee Kong Chian Natural History Museum, said the possibility of another widespread bleaching event depends on the timing and strength of the upcoming El Nino.

“If El Nino picks up rapidly and warms the region significantly by July or even later in October and November, there is a chance some bleaching may occur then,” said the associate professor.

If higher-than-normal sea surface temperatures persist through mid-2027, more bleaching could also happen then.

Prof Huang has been studying how coral reefs can withstand the impacts of climate change. Some coral species are more adaptable and tolerant to heat.

In late May, as part of a research project he is co-leading, heat-resilient corals will be transplanted to a few reef areas in the Southern Islands. This is to test if heat-resilient microbes in the corals can help to minimise coral bleaching.

This inter-institute research is part of the National Parks Board’s Marine Climate Change Science programme.

Prof Huang said: “If these test corals perform better during the El Nino event, this approach could be scaled up to mitigate bleaching on our reefs to some degree.”